Atlanta Hawks basketball is back; Jeff Teague splitting opposing defenses, Kyle Korver launching PUJIT 3s, Al Horford killing teams on the pick-and-pop, Paul Millsap doing all-star things, DeMarre Carroll giving opposing wings fits — it’s all returning tonight in Toronto at 7:30.
To get a better sense of what to expect out of the matchup with the Raptors tonight, I brought in Chris Walder of Raptors HQ and William Lou of Raptors Republic to talk about it.
The Raptors won 48 games last year, to most people’s surprise, do you think a 50-win season is possible in Year 2 of this core? Why or why not?
Walder: There’s going to be some sort of regression this season, most likely in the form of injuries catching up to key players like Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson. While 50 victories is certainly feasible, a deeper and more competitive Eastern Conference will keep them in check and have the team hovering around the 45-to-48 win mark. The ultimate goal is winning a second-straight Atlantic Division title and getting out of the first round of the playoffs. If the Raptors accomplish that and win fewer games than they did a year ago, no one will complain.
Lou: A 50-win season is definitely possible, and here’s why: the Raptors were 42-22 after trading Rudy Gay, and every important member was retained. Throw in a little development for their two young starters in Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, and there is good reason to believe that Toronto is in for a two-win improvement. The only reservation I have is their health. The Raptors missed the fewest games due to injury last season.
The 5-man unit was Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Jonas had a plus/minus of +42 last season. Do you expect that kind of production again out of this starting unit?
Walder: If they can stay on the floor long enough to do so, then yes. That five-man unit only missed 13 total combined games in 2013-14. That’s an incredible number when you take into consideration that Lowry and Johnson played through pain for a majority of the year.
A lot will hinge on the continued development of both Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas as well. You know what you’re going to get out of the other three starters, so it will be important for the two third-year pros to find more consistency on both ends of the floor.
Lou: The Raptors starting-five is a well-balanced group. Each player understands their role in the pecking order, and there’s enough floor spacing and options in the post to form a decent offensive unit. However, the Raptors rarely finish games with this five-man unit, as head coach Dwane Casey likes to play the matchups to finish games. That usually calls for Greivis Vasquez to replace Ross, and for Patrick Patterson to replace Valanciunas. This is probably the Raptors’ best lineup, as it provides even more floor-spacing, while adding in a third ball-handler in Vasquez.
The Raptors were 10th in ORtg and DRtg last season. Can we expect that kind of extremely efficient balance on both ends of the floor for Casey’s team again this year?
Walder: I’m not worried at all over the Raptors losing any of their potency on the offensive end. They have plenty of firepower across the board and should maintain their top-10 rating.
What head coach Dwane Casey will be hammering home all season long is defensive intensity and “pounding the rock.” It’s hard to say how much stock should be put into preseason action, yet the Raptors lack of urgency on defense in those games still troubles me. If those issues carry over into the regular season, Casey won’t be a happy camper.
Lou: It’s definitely possible. Personally, I’m a little skeptical of reading too much into defensive rating for teams in the East last season, as the conference was so incredibly weak on offense. I think in order for Toronto to repeat as a top-10 defensive squad, Valanciunas will need to step up on the defensive end and develop into more than just a stay at home rim-protector. The offense should be fine. Adding in #LouTrillVille (who I know wasn’t a good fit in Atlanta) should be a huge upgrade over last season’s pariah John Salmons.
What kind of matchup problems do the Hawks pose for the Raptors? The Raptors for the Hawks?
Walder: DeMar DeRozan lit up the Hawks last season for 28.0 points and 5.3 rebounds on 52.6 percent shooting across four games. I like what Atlanta did over the offseason by bringing in a guy like Thabo Sefolosha to come off the bench and be a defensive stopper to combat All-Star wings like DeRozan. We’ll see if that makes a difference Wednesday night.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on Al Horford and what he brings to the table after recovering from pectoral surgery. He’s averaged a double-double of 14.8 points and 10.9 rebounds against Toronto for his career (16 games). With Greg Stiemsma out with an ankle injury, Valanciunas will need to avoid getting into foul trouble because there will be little size behind him otherwise. If that happens, Horford could put up big numbers in a hurry.
Lou: The Hawks are well-structured to beat the Raptors. Save for Lowry, the Raptors’ wings aren’t the most stingy when it comes to fighting through screens to contest spot-ups, and I fully expect a Mike Budenholzer offense to capitalize. It also worries me that the Hawks will likely force the Raptors’ best interior defender in Amir Johnson out of the paint. The Hawks’ style of smallball might for the Raptors to fight fire with fire, which would detract for what the Raptors do best.
Predictions for the game tonight?
Walder: I expect a competitive contest in front of a very hot Toronto crowd. The Hawks and Raptors will be jockeying for position for a majority of the season, so drawing first blood could go a long way.
Riding the high of it being opening night with 20,000+ #WeTheNorth supporters (and Drake) cheering on, the Raptors will eek out a narrow victory by a final score of 102-98. DeRozan will drop at least 25 points while former Hawk Lou Williams comes off the bench with 16 of his own.
Lou: I predicted a 102-99 victory for the Raptors because they’re playing at home.
Happy Lou Williams Revenge Game Day everyone.
