After falling in Toronto in Game 1 of the 2014-15 NBA season the Hawks host the hobbled Indiana Pacers in their home opener.
To get a better idea of what the Hawks are up against tonight I brought in Nathan Samples of Indy Cornrows and Tim Donahue of 8 Points 9 Seconds to preview tonight’s game.
The Pacers come into Atlanta for the second game of a back-to-back slate, falling to the Grizzlies 97-89 at home. In their opener the team barely squeaked by the 76ers. What do you make of the Pacers after two games? About where you expected, better or worse?
Nathan: The Pacers have been about where I’ve expected them to be. They clearly lack talent with their injury situation where it is right now. They’re going to struggle to keep pace with teams that have talented rosters across 48 minutes without mind boggling games from players like C.J. Miles, and even getting that is going to be difficult. To make matters worse, the Pacers team you see tonight is likely the Pacers team you’ll see for a while as David West, George Hill, and C.J. Watson still appear far from return.
Tim: The Pacers are not a good team, right now. Injuries are forcing them to start their third point guard (Donald Sloan) and a guy who should probably be their fourth or fifth wing (Solomon Hill). Games against Philadelphia don’t count for anything. They played better than I expected against Memphis last night, but once the Griz turned the tables, it was a pretty futile exercise.
The Pacers have been eviscerated by the injury bug to start the season, but what role players could benefit from the increased playing time? Why those guys? Who would you like to see get a lot minutes on this team that may not have gotten much playing time before?
Nathan: Indiana would be best served to work on the development of Solomon Hill and Lavoy Allen. Neither player appears to have a ceiling worth taking serious note of, but the organization believes Hill is the only player capable of making up the defensive gap left by Paul George’s injury, though he’s shown little to none in that area to inspire a ton of confidence. With Allen, his hard work, dirty work style of play has been a nice blip for Indiana in their first two games, with him grabbing 7.5 boards in just 23 minutes of action. European sharpshooter Damjan Rudez may be well served to get minutes as he continues to acclimate himself to the NBA game. He shouldn’t be gaining NBA minutes at this point in the season on a team that expects to win, but without many options, and knocking in his first three NBA three pointers last night, it’s a little less painful seeing Rudez out on the floor.
Tim: Theoretically, Solomon Hill is the guy that the Pacers and most of their fans are hoping will blossom, given this opportunity. He was their first round pick from 2013, and really the only thing they have that’s close to a “prospect.” He has not impressed, thus far, but Vogel likes him as “a tough-minded guy (who) brings an edge to the defense.” Donald Sloan has the biggest opportunity with his starting role, but he’s effectively trying to prove that he belongs in the league as a rotation player. Chris Copeland is hugely popular with the fans, so there’s a lot of interest in seeing get minutes.
However, with this Pacer team, it really would be much more valuable to be able to watch how C.J. Miles or Rodney Stuckey play with the returning starters like George Hill, David West, and Roy Hibbert. There do not appear to be any future starters – or even starters – among the younger players.
Donald Sloan, C.J. Miles and Chris Copeland are the team leaders in FGAs through two games, how do you feel about that? What do you make of the offense without George, Hill and West? What’s different?
Nathan: It certainly doesn’t feel like a winning strategy to give the lion’s share of your shots to Sloan, Miles, and Copeland, but there simply aren’t the options right now to be choosy. They’re the guys most capable of scoring on a team that is going to struggle getting consistent scoring. Frank Vogel has always preached ball movement on offense, and that is what he looks for more with this unit, because with a lack of go-to scoring, the Pacers can’t lean on players like West for entire quarters. Indiana will look to showcase Rodney Stuckey more as he rounds back into game shape and works through his own injuries as on a team with no speed or playmaking, he’s the guy most capable of making things happen with plays going towards the basket. The lack of play makers will also showcase the three point shot with more prevalence. Indiana was just 26th in three point attempts last year at just under 19 a game. They’re up to 23 per game through the first two, and with players like Miles, Copeland, and Rudez receiving heavy minutes, it’s unlikely to go down.
Tim: Given the injury situation, those three being the most active offense players seems to make a reasonable amount of sense. It’s clearly less than ideal, but Roy Hibbert isn’t really a main option, and Luis Scola looks to be out of sync with his floormates. It is also worth noting that Roy Hibbert did get 13 free throw attempts against Philly, so he’s been relatively engaged.
This year’s offense has the opportunity to be a little bit improved, if only for having more shooters. Without George and Stephenson, the ball should “stick” less, and that should hopefully make the offense work better. However, they’re really going to need to cut down on their turnovers (19.4%, 5th worst in NBA), and they’ll have to consistently hit their threes. Also, the current starters (Sloan, Miles, Solomon Hill, Scola, Hibbert) have been a disaster on both ends, being outscored by 16 points in 29 minutes together. That will dig a pretty deep hole, if that continues during this month of injuries.
How has Roy Hibbert played thus far without George, West and Hill? Do you, or should you, expect more out of him with all the injuries to the starting unit?
Nathan: Unfortunately, he’s played about how I’ve expected. He posted a big opening night game against Philadelphia with 22 points, eight boards, and seven blocks, but followed it up with early foul trouble in an eight point night against Marc Gasol. Where Roy is offensively is probably where he’s going to be. Capable of big nights, but not likely to give many of them. The real difference is going to be what kind of impact he can make defensively. He’s shown flashes of the rim protection that made him an All-Star just eight and a half months ago, but without much reliability from the wing defense, he’s mostly left to make things happen on his own, which resulted in some rim protection against Memphis last night, but left Gasol free to step into his jumper.
Tim: Hibbert has played relatively well over the first two games, but it’s hard for a player of his skillsets to be a difference maker in this type of situation. He was dominant against Philly – which comes with the required asterisk – and struggled against Memphis.- which is no sin, given their defense.
With Roy, I don’t think the Pacers really are hoping for him to step up and carry the team. More likely, they are hoping that he stays engaged and effective. If he can just keep playing – even if things go badly – then he will be useful. However, if he gets in the kind of funk he’s been prone to over his career, then it really doesn’t matter who his teammates are.
Who wins tonight and why?
Nathan: Given Indiana’s already well-documented struggles in Philips Arena and returning only one starter from last year’s playoff series and that player being Hibbert, I expect Atlanta to win tonight’s game, and possibly handily. Against a team capable of hitting the three pointer, Indiana’s one potential advantage could easily be negated if the Hawks shoot even remotely as well as they did on Wednesday.
Tim: Atlanta, for all of the obvious reasons. It’s the Hawk home opener, and Indiana is playing the second night of a back-to-back. But…mostly, the Hawks will win, because they are a better team than the Pacers, right now.
